My hockey nap is over, but hockey's nap is not.

 Oh, wow, hey guys, *yawn*, The offseason? Yeah, I assume my nap didn't fully encapsulate almost all of it, right? It did? Oh boy. Let's catch up then, shall we? What kinds of shifts should we expect this season in the NHL? After two consecutive Panthers - Oilers finals, surely things were shaken up a bit, ready to take advantage of Florida and Edmonton's fatigue?

Looks like not. I noted in my last post, verging on three months ago, that the NHL's increased salary cap had made it easier for teams to re-sign their own players, which, for at least this and maybe the next season, rendered the offseason a little on the slow side. There were trades, of course, with K'Andre Miller and Chris Kreider leaving New York, and Mitch Marner leaving Toronto. The balances of power in the NHL, however, remain unaltered. 

Of course, a couple big names didn't re-up with his old team, at least not yet. Kirill Kaprizov and Connor McDavid are still without extensions, though I have to believe they are reluctant to lock in their prices when they know the salary cap is likely to go up again next year. No slight to Minnesota and Edmonton, but those two are just looking to maximize their next contract. (ed. note: Kaprizov was extended mid writing! Life happens fast)

I listened to an interview with Paul Maurice, where he stated that he wasn't worried about the Panthers being tired, because everyone is tired by January. With rosters remaining as static as they are, the greatest turnover is through retirement or the draft, and the Panthers are young enough that their core isn't going to be retiring soon. Florida is probably a favorite again to hoist the Cup in 2026.

I'm back on Blogger after Barry Melrose Rocks was swallowed by a conglomerate that didn't care for my writing about how tough being a Russian in the NHL would be, and wondering about the safety of guys like Kaprizov returning to their homeland, and if they would be allowed back. There was a memorandum to stop talking about politics. Quibbles with painting player concern as "politics" aside, there is more news. Well, the same news. Russia is still at war. 

And now, like the end of last season, even the US and Canada are at odds, adding quite a bit of spice to the NHL season. How can one not talk about politics when talking about the NHL any longer? If any sport requires it, it's this one. Without any tangible impact from the current American administration on the League, we can at least say that cross border games will be extra spicy, in a way that certainly transcends typical hockey rivalries. 

We have a week to get ready for the NHL season. There aren't a many fresh storylines as we see, and the undertones to the season are the same undertones to our daily life in North America for the last several months. Enjoy the game, enjoy the season even if it isn't as much of a distraction as it usually is. I'm sure as hell going to try. 

Not a particularly (W)ild free agency

 The trade deadline and July 1st offer hockey fans an incredible burst of transaction activity that you don't particularly see anywhere else in sports. Hockey rosters are ever in flux, and at this point, a certain subset of fans are braced and excited for that chaos every year. 

But this year, what happened? You can look at a couple of the biggest names as of late June and get a pretty good idea of the situation. Mitch Marner was traded on the 30th of June before signing an extension with his new team, the Golden Knights. Brock Boeser just signed himself a 7 year deal with his current and former team, the Vancouver Canucks. 

This is a perfect example of a good problem, though. Teams have more room, so they are able to spend more money to keep their own. Boeser didn't mind Vancouver, so he stayed. Marner didn't care to spend more time in Toronto, and the Leafs made sure to get something in return. Neither needed to hit the open market because everyone has the ability to add players. There wasn't a particularly great need for Marner because nobody was looking to replace their top players.

This was a real let down for a team like the Wild (my team of choice) who has been in cap hell for years since jettisoning Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. They were supposed to be in a great position to start adding to a young and developing roster, but now, there just wasn't that much out there to attract them, nothing that was going to substantially improve the roster immediately or in the near future. 

This is a blip, though, and not a symptom of the way things will always be. It is great news for players, because with a larger cap, teams will start paying them more. Eventually, the contracts in effect right now will expire, and expectations for those players is that they should make more money as well. Teams will spend nearer to their cap again, and more players will be forced into free agency to seek the best deal they can get.

But this year, I give you permission to stop refreshing SportsNet's free agency tracker. Stop refreshing the SportsNet tracker and enjoy your weekend. 

The more things change...

Hockey seems like the kind of sport where truly anything can happen. The game is in constant motion, it's played on ice and uses a curved stick with a round pick in an oval rink. At the professional level, it's rare to find one uniting language that every member of a line speaks. Of all games, it seems like one at which "luck" should play an outsized role. 

If not luck, then the extended grind of the season and playoffs should ensure a bit of change from year to year. The salary cap, too, prevents the teams at the top for keeping all of the best players forever. The salary cap are there for parity, and definitely not an excuse for owners to save a few bucks.

It's hard to repeat, and the game is simply more vulnerable to chance than other sports played in North America, especially at an elite level where the top talent to the bottom isn't so dissimilar. Half the league makes the post season every year, which further brings about the potential for chaos. A long season helps sort teams out a little bit, but that often gets thrown out the window in a short series.

With all that chaos and room for drama cooked into every season, every Stanley Cup Playoff, you might reasonably expect to be surprised all the time. Despite these headwinds against predictability, however, both the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers have returned to their respective conference finals. Heck, the Oilers are even playing the Stars again, just like last year's WCF.

It's a testament to the depth and talent in Edmonton, Florida and Dallas, surely. It's hard to reach this level consistently, which is why -- Hold on, I'm being told that this is actually Florida's third trip to the ECF in a row? And before that the Lightning made the Stanley Cup Final three year in a row? And before that, in '16 and '17 the Penguins won the Cup in back to back years? And before that, the Cup was just handed back and forth between the Kings and the Blackhawks? 

So there is actually quite a lot of precedent for a team to be strong enough to return to the Finals every year, despite all we hear about luck and the challenge of sustaining relevance. And further, there are teams like the Maple Leafs, who have consistently been unable to win the Stanley Cup in nearly 60 years, or the Wild who have busted out of the first round in the playoffs 8 times in the past 10 years. How do you explain that level of consistency from the other end? Why are the Hurricanes going to lose in the Eastern Conference Finals again?! 

For all the luck, all the team turnover and all the variance we expect from teams playing throughout the year, the NHL is stratified. I'm sorry, this just means that the Maple Leafs are never winning the Cup again.

The market is cornered

 

Among the things I appreciate about the NHL is it's dedication to representing the many nations from which it's fans come. The NHL has drawn from the US and Canada, obviously, but also there is a long history of players coming from Scandinavia and eastern Europe. There is also a long history of the NHL playing games in Stockholm or Prague. The NBA can expand it's audience with games in Mexico City. The NHL is going to Finland.

For a sport that has been criticized for focusing, to a fault at times, on expanding into a part of the country that is, at best, hockey illiterate, they haven't really gone crazy with their overseas games. Lately, buy in from places like Vegas and Utah has been very good, but it certainly hasn't always been the case, that those sun belt states were excited about hockey. The NHL hasn't pursued markets that, internationally, are not typical hockey markets.

And Finland, where the Stars and Panthers played this morning, is fully in the tank for the NHL. Aside from the terrific names that Finland has to offer hockey fans, which make their home grown players immediately recognizable, they also put together a terrific bunch of players. They are, after all, the reigning Olympic champion. 

Playing NHL games in Finland isn't really expanding the global footprint of the sport, as much as it is throwing red meat to the the biggest fans. If anything, in these spots, they are competing with domestic leagues (or the KHL) rather than introducing a new sport to a fan base, as the NBA or NFL playing in Mexico City or London is. 

And beyond that, it's not as though Finland would be a large market to try to expand. The population of Finland is about 5 and a half million, or slightly larger than that of South Carolina. Finland's population is into hockey, and have a strong domestic league, and the population doesn't represent a huge market to try to expand into anyways. 

None of this is a criticism of the NHL playing in Finland, specifically, or in Europe in general. It's just neat that they do stuff because it's cool, and not necessarily because of some sort of ulterior motive. 

Anything but the northeast

 The NHL expands or changes markets in clusters, it seems. There were a couple of expansions in the Great Lakes at the turn of the century, with Minnesota and Columbus being a returned teams. Otherwsie, at least in the last 30 years or so, growth has been broadly in two primary regions.

There was the Sunbelt Explosion, that saw two teams brought to Florida, the Nashville Predators, the Atlanta Thrashers and the relocated Carolina Hurricanes through the 90s and early 2000s. Never mind that the Thrashers didn't work out. this spat of expansion brought 4 teams to the American Southeast. Heck, I would also lump the Stars in this group.

Winnipeg gained the Thrashers and they became thee Jets, because the old Jets moved to Phoenix. There had been some expansion in California, and the Nordiques moved to Colorado, but of late it seems like the western US is where the NHL has focused on, with the three most recent franchises moving into Las Vegas, Seattle and now, Salt Lake City (from Phoenix).

The NHL is at 32 teams right now, which seems like a comfortable level, but if the league ever wants to go bigger, maybe finally they will consider some spots in the Northeast, or back in Canada, like Quebec or Hamilton. Knowing what the NHL has done in the past, however, it seems like if they bring one team to the region, more will follow. If we are looking at a one off move, it will probably be out west.

Are you ready for Boise's entry in the NHL?

It's going to be hard to beat last season

Sure, the 24-25 season is about to get going, but it's going to be really tough to beat the 23-24 season, right? It was, top to bottom, one of the better seasons of hockey we've been able to appreciate in a while, ending with the best player in hockey, Connor McDavid, playing in a classic Stanley Cup Final that was nearly squandered by the Panthers in a potentially cataclysmic loss. But it wasn't, and the whole thing was tremendous. How do you get any better than that?

I'll tell you how: Be a fan of nearly every team aside from the Panthers. There is hope to start the season, and it will carry us through the winter. For a couple of teams, about half of the league, the record, their voyage into the postseason, and overall performance will match or best their season last year. That is how it gets better. It will be better for many fans. 

After the Sabres and Devils played in Prague earlier today, we can now also pin another thing in the 24-25 season's favor. This season is here now, and the best possible season is whatever season we get to enjoy right now. So yeah, this is going to be the best season ever. 

NHL.com is going streaking

 We are in the final throes of the regular season, and teams are clinching their spot in the playoffs and the NHL is celebrating their accomplishments. The Maple Leafs, despite all the consternation over their lack of success when they get there, have reached the postseason an impressive 8 seasons in a row.

A more successful team recently, the Lightning, somehow only marked their 7th post season in a row. It could surely be some balm for those Leaf fans troubled by success after the regular season, that they were so consistent, even more so than the steady Lightning.

And then there was a third team that is in a differetnt kind of streak. we don't need to talk about that. 

End of the season rooting interests

 There is a wide Gulf between the best teams in the NHL and the next tier. There is a long standing observation over how difficult it is to sustain the success of a season in which you won the President's Trophy, and carrying that through to success n the Playoff. At this point, since the team with the most points doesn't ever win the Cup, I think we can be happy if a team from this upper echelon wins it. 

There are 11 teams with more than 88 points, and 0 teams with between 83 and 88 points. There is also a gap between 89 to 93 points, and there are 8 teams with 93 points or more. Let's hope, then, that one of these 8 teams can win the Cup, and render the entire, long winded regular season valid. If you are a fan of one of the other 24 franchises, this is probably going to be difficult. To help, I have come up with 1 reason to root for every one of the top 8 squads.

1: Bruins - Do you like consistency? Well, these Bruins, like Brad Marchand or David Pastrnak or Charlie McAvoy have all been a part of the Bruins organization since 1976

2: Panthers - Last year, I picked the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, feeling their all in attitude was laudable. Now a year later, I would still feel pretty good about myself if they won it all, and don't you want me to feel good about myself?

3: Rangers - Henrik Lundqvist still has close ties with the Rangers. Maybe you could get his number if he knows you are cheering for them? Or maybe you are just a fan of bad nicknames, then you can cheer for the Breadman, Artemi Panarin.

4: Hurricanes - Brent Burns  is still around and generally kicking but. He's been growing a playoff beard since he was 19, and it would be great to see if he would shave upon winning it all.

5: Avalanche - This is purely an "I like Denver" play, because Denver is lovely. The Avs won it two seasons ago, and the town got a little high on themselves, but still, a lovely town.

6: Stars - This is a tough sell for a fan from Minnesota, given the history, and the fact that the Wild aren't going to be in the postseason either, but here goes. Jake Oettinger and I have some common acquaintances, so that's pretty neat. 

7: Jets - This is the team for nearly every Canadian outside of Vancouver.

8: Canucks - This is the team for fans inside of Vancouver, or people who remember their last trip to the Final and the chaos that ensued in the city. Be safe, Vancouver.

So there you go, maybe you can use that handy guide to find the right choice for you. Or you can be a traditional Flyers fan and root against everyone. 

Nobody is ready for the trade deadline

The trade deadline is coming up six long days from now. It seems like The Athletic has been sending me updates on potential deadline targets for the last two months, and we still have an arduous week to wait for the deals to start flying.

Of course, some deals, like Chris Tanev's, Sean Monahan's and Elias Lindholm's have already been executed, but the real party will come on Friday. And not Friday morning, everything will start around lunch time and conclude with a mad dash for the closing bell.

This is just how hockey is as an organization. All of the big pivotal moments are frantic and over before you realize they have started. The offseason has nothing until the beginning of July and then FREE AGENCY and then we wait until the season starts. There are some meandering transaction stories and then for three brilliant hours, we have 25 trades involving every team in the league. Once in a while, a team will sit out completely, but that's typically because they overslept.

The Flames are very clearly tearing things down. There are other teams out of contention that won't have the right pieces to have a fire sale, but I would watch the Minnesota Wild as a payroll pressed team rapidly falling out of contention as an active player on Friday. The Islanders also rank high on my list of teams to watch for wrong reasons this week.

On a more positive front, I think teams that are in position thanks to a very hot stretch may want to reinforce their roster before they slip back to mediocrity. That would point me to look at more things to come from Winnipeg, but also the Nashville Predators. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rangers take a swing as well. In either direction, many teams will have to determine their course of action based on how just these next couple of days go. 

But then again, everyone is going to be making a move. There is a chance with any roster shuffle that it might end up being the type of move that brings in a beloved third liner for many years to come, or a player that develops into a better skater than the one given up in trade. It's a wild ride, and none of it will be predictable. 

At last, it is hockey season

We made it, everyone. We made it through two pandemic battered seasons, an offseason that saw the demise of the beloved Barry Melrose Rocks brand and headline after headline that exposed the gross underbelly of youth hockey, and even before the season began for everyone, headlines that exposed the grossness of current players. We made it through all that, and this week we will have the most normal seeming season we have had in multiple years. 

It's important to note that we have only made it through the headlines. The reckoning and soul searching will take time, and forgiveness and healing will take longer. Canada seems to be better at coming to grips with it's sordid history of late, and I can only hope that this means an earnest effort to hockey writ large to follow a more generous future for all who encounter the game. 

But along side this area of reformation, we get to enjoy hockey unencumbered by nearly as many world issues. Just think, two years ago, American teams couldn't even play in Canada, let alone in Prague. After the last couple of years with significant structural question marks, we can now ask questions about how the Flames are going to mesh this year, instead of how many Kings can even play the Oilers this weekend. 

I suspect that among the returns to normalcy will be a return to the difficulty in repeating as Cup champions. I would not be surprised to see the Avalanche fall flat this season, not because of a lack of talent but simply because of exhaustion. Similarly the Lightning, who have been diving deep into the postseason with regularity the last several years.

The league seems to be very Eastern Conference heavy going into the year, and picking a winner there will be tricky. I'm going to lean into the Florida Panthers, who made a leap last year, and then spent the entire summer firming up their roster. They are going to be good again in 2022, and if my hunch that the Lightning are going to be flat is correct, they should have an inside track on the Atlantic. I don't trust the 'Canes, Rangers or Maple Leafs, so I guess the Panthers are where it's at for me.

Out West, there simply isn't the high end depth that there is in East. If the Avs are down, as I project, there aren't obvious candidates to take them. The Blues and Wild will be good (though I worry about the Wild and their reliance on youth to surround Kirill Kaprizov) but I don't believe anyone expects deep Cup runs from either. In the Pacific, the class of the conference is in Alberta, with a mish mash of disappointment expected at varying levels elsewhere.

I'm moderately sure that most professional sports are prearranged to encourage better story lines, and if the Panthers are coming from the East, that surely means the Flames will be their opponent. And wouldn't that be something, given the loss of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk? Panthers in 6.

We have a lot more certainty this season. It is going to happen and be familiar. I will probably be wrong, but only because hockey is hard to predict, Enjoy the games tonight (and through the rest of the season).