Conferences done right

 I was watching college basketball today, and my son and I were chatting. I noted that we are getting to the end of the season, so now teams are playing a lot of tournaments. Next week, they are starting the national championship tournament. This week, they are playing conference tournaments. My son asked a fantastic question.

"What's a conference?"

In college basketball, that's pretty fuzzy these days. but something the NHL still seems to care about, perhaps to a fault. No more has that been evident than this season, particularly when looking at the Utah Mammoth and Minnesota Wild.

Before we dig into those, let's first talk about what is good about conferences. Familiarity breeds contempt. The rivalry factor makes the regular season a little bit spicier, rather than rote. Cross conference games are interesting, playing teams you don't get to see regularly. Of course there is also the cost containment of having the conferences geographically centered.  And then, the post season enflames all those things, emphasizing rivalry, allowing for fresher teams with reduced travel in the first couple of rounds.

This season, it looks like the playoff structure will cause results that appear unfaCir. I'm a Wild fan, the team most feel is getting slighted, but I don't feel that way. The Stanley Cup, one way or another, is likely to involve a path through Colorado or Dallas, maybe both. After that, allegedly, it should be a piece of cake. But really, if winning the Cup necessarily would involve beating those teams, why does it matter WHEN you play them?

This year is a one year fluke. Anything can happen when you reach the Playoff. Utah might have a clearer path to run deeper towards the Championship. but they haven't improved their odds of winning the Cup. I'm looking forward to an intense series with the Stars, maybe more than one with a team like the Ducks. Bring it on. 

The more things change...

Hockey seems like the kind of sport where truly anything can happen. The game is in constant motion, it's played on ice and uses a curved stick with a round pick in an oval rink. At the professional level, it's rare to find one uniting language that every member of a line speaks. Of all games, it seems like one at which "luck" should play an outsized role. 

If not luck, then the extended grind of the season and playoffs should ensure a bit of change from year to year. The salary cap, too, prevents the teams at the top for keeping all of the best players forever. The salary cap are there for parity, and definitely not an excuse for owners to save a few bucks.

It's hard to repeat, and the game is simply more vulnerable to chance than other sports played in North America, especially at an elite level where the top talent to the bottom isn't so dissimilar. Half the league makes the post season every year, which further brings about the potential for chaos. A long season helps sort teams out a little bit, but that often gets thrown out the window in a short series.

With all that chaos and room for drama cooked into every season, every Stanley Cup Playoff, you might reasonably expect to be surprised all the time. Despite these headwinds against predictability, however, both the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers have returned to their respective conference finals. Heck, the Oilers are even playing the Stars again, just like last year's WCF.

It's a testament to the depth and talent in Edmonton, Florida and Dallas, surely. It's hard to reach this level consistently, which is why -- Hold on, I'm being told that this is actually Florida's third trip to the ECF in a row? And before that the Lightning made the Stanley Cup Final three year in a row? And before that, in '16 and '17 the Penguins won the Cup in back to back years? And before that, the Cup was just handed back and forth between the Kings and the Blackhawks? 

So there is actually quite a lot of precedent for a team to be strong enough to return to the Finals every year, despite all we hear about luck and the challenge of sustaining relevance. And further, there are teams like the Maple Leafs, who have consistently been unable to win the Stanley Cup in nearly 60 years, or the Wild who have busted out of the first round in the playoffs 8 times in the past 10 years. How do you explain that level of consistency from the other end? Why are the Hurricanes going to lose in the Eastern Conference Finals again?! 

For all the luck, all the team turnover and all the variance we expect from teams playing throughout the year, the NHL is stratified. I'm sorry, this just means that the Maple Leafs are never winning the Cup again.

End of the season rooting interests

 There is a wide Gulf between the best teams in the NHL and the next tier. There is a long standing observation over how difficult it is to sustain the success of a season in which you won the President's Trophy, and carrying that through to success n the Playoff. At this point, since the team with the most points doesn't ever win the Cup, I think we can be happy if a team from this upper echelon wins it. 

There are 11 teams with more than 88 points, and 0 teams with between 83 and 88 points. There is also a gap between 89 to 93 points, and there are 8 teams with 93 points or more. Let's hope, then, that one of these 8 teams can win the Cup, and render the entire, long winded regular season valid. If you are a fan of one of the other 24 franchises, this is probably going to be difficult. To help, I have come up with 1 reason to root for every one of the top 8 squads.

1: Bruins - Do you like consistency? Well, these Bruins, like Brad Marchand or David Pastrnak or Charlie McAvoy have all been a part of the Bruins organization since 1976

2: Panthers - Last year, I picked the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, feeling their all in attitude was laudable. Now a year later, I would still feel pretty good about myself if they won it all, and don't you want me to feel good about myself?

3: Rangers - Henrik Lundqvist still has close ties with the Rangers. Maybe you could get his number if he knows you are cheering for them? Or maybe you are just a fan of bad nicknames, then you can cheer for the Breadman, Artemi Panarin.

4: Hurricanes - Brent Burns  is still around and generally kicking but. He's been growing a playoff beard since he was 19, and it would be great to see if he would shave upon winning it all.

5: Avalanche - This is purely an "I like Denver" play, because Denver is lovely. The Avs won it two seasons ago, and the town got a little high on themselves, but still, a lovely town.

6: Stars - This is a tough sell for a fan from Minnesota, given the history, and the fact that the Wild aren't going to be in the postseason either, but here goes. Jake Oettinger and I have some common acquaintances, so that's pretty neat. 

7: Jets - This is the team for nearly every Canadian outside of Vancouver.

8: Canucks - This is the team for fans inside of Vancouver, or people who remember their last trip to the Final and the chaos that ensued in the city. Be safe, Vancouver.

So there you go, maybe you can use that handy guide to find the right choice for you. Or you can be a traditional Flyers fan and root against everyone. 

Taking the Playoffs on the road

 The idea of the current playoff structure is that it would encourage budding rivalries and hopefully reduce travel over the grind of the postseason. It makes sense, and for the most part, I think rivalries are burning a little hotter right now, especially when teams are good in the same conference at the same time for a while. 

The conferences are supposed to be geographically attuned, but this year, that isn't leading to much relaxed travel. In the west, it doesn't help that only one of the teams from Alberta and one from California made the postseason, and those two squads, the Oilers and Kings, will play in the first round. Seattle is in the playoffs, as is Vegas, and both are crossing divisions to play the Avs and Jets, respectively. In the Central, the two teams with the furthest distance between them, (since the Jets were off the board) the Stars and Wild, will play. 

The West covers a lot of ground, though, and even in the best of years, it seems like there will be quite a bit of distance between the teams, but this year, the East is requiring a bit more first round travel than normal. First the good news: Every New York area team made the post season, and the Devils and Rangers are playing. The Islanders are squaring off with the Hurricanes in Raleigh.

The real strain will come on the other half of the bracket, where both Florida teams appear, naturally not playing one another. The Lightning play the Maple Leafs and the Panthers are pitted against the Bruins. The Bruins, in particular, are going to be able to pick at this quirk of scheduling. The Bruins have been the best regular season team in NHL history, and will be rewarded with the longest possible first round trip. Never mind the fact that I believe the Panthers to be pretty feisty. 

With the spirit of arduous travel in mind, my finals picks are the Kraken and Panthers. Get your frequent flyer cards ready.